2012
promises to be a very busy year in all things digital, but, as with any
annum, there will be just a handful of big, memorable trends. Here,
I’ve collected five such movements that are likely to make a big impact
in our technologically-enhanced lives.
Augmented Reality
It’s now in games, location apps, business cards and coffee shops and could start showing up in cars and even eyeglasses. Augmented Reality,
which puts a virtual view on top of your real world, is really just a
cool way of saying, “Reality with Style.” Instead of simply viewing your
apartment through your phone, you’re playing Star Wars Arcade Falcon Gunner on top of it. Instead looking up a restaurant in your neighborhood, you’re using Yelp
to see its location and reviews for it and other restaurants right on
top of your on-screen view of the street. 2012 will mark the beginning
of exponential growth for Mobile Augmented Reality (MAR).
According to a report from Visiongain,
25% of all app downloads will feature some sort of augmented reality.
Though adoption hinges on more powerful, high-speed and camera-ready
mobile devices, it’s clear to me that the majority of smartphones and
tablets in end-users’ hands next year will be 3G-to-4G-ready, high-def,
large-screen devices with not one, but two multi-megapixel cameras.
Trust me, by 2013, you’ll be hard-pressed to find anyone who hasn’t at
least tried augmented reality.
The Micro-Payment Economy
App manufacturers are not the only ones who can make money selling
tiny wares and incremental upgrades. The barrier to entry for starting
your own small business has been effectively knocked down by a variety
of online merchants who are willing to hawk your wares for next to
nothing. In truth, the merchandise isn’t entirely yours. In fact, these
companies are often just selling your idea on top of their wares and you
get a tiny slice for each sale, or for when the numbers of sales
reaches a certain threshold.
Sites like RedBubble do everything for the artist; all they need to do is upload the content. RedBubble
will, for example, make the T-Shirt with your art, sell it for you,
manage the distribution and, of course, collect payment. The site lets
you set the price above their fixed price. Yes, you could add as much as
you want onto a $16 T-shirt, but most smart sellers know this means
they won’t sell a single garment. Instead, you add 1%-to-5% (maybe 10%
if you’re feeling strong) and then promote the dickens out of your
product on the site and through various social networks.
RedBubble is just one of many destinations popping up to help the aspiring entrepreneur. They join established platforms like Lulu (self-publish books), and YouTube.
YouTube has been inviting videographers into the commerce tent for
years, letting them add AdSense accounts to popular videos and then
sitting back and watching the pennies roll in.
As the economy sputters along, look for more and more of the sites
helping you sell almost anything you can imagine and making you a
“fortune”–one micro payment at a time.
The Rise of the UltraBook
Tablets dominate the tech conversation, but that doesn’t mean the PC
is dead. No, it’s alive and well, but in a form that will closely mimic
some of the best features of tablets. I don’t have numbers yet, but I’m
betting Desktop PCs were not big sellers this holiday season. Laptops
may have done a little better, but who among you was willing to give
junior an end-of-life netbook instead of a sexy, touch-screen tablet? (I’m imagining no one raising their hands).
A term coined by Intel, Ultrabooks
describe exquisitely thin and light, yet pleasingly powerful laptops.
Think MacBook Air and you get the idea. No, they don’t have touch
screens or apps (though that’s changing, too) and Ultrabooks usually have just one HD camera. Still, with just a little more heft and girth than your garden-variety iPad,
an Ultrabook adds a full-sized keyboard and far more powerful
components. In other words, they’re perfectly designed for getting real
work done, but no one will be embarrassed to carry one around. 2012 will
witness an explosion of these devices as manufacturers pin on them
their last best hopes for regaining consumer computing interest.
Social/Digital Exhaustion
Facebook will break the 1 billion user mark in 2012, but its numbers have flattened out in the U.S. Twitter is growing; it may have as many 450 million users, but no one knows
how many people are really active users. Google+ is growing steadily,
but is still well behind the two most established networks and much of
the public is unaware of its existence. There is the now persistent,
with good reason, backlash against mobile phone usage in cars and on
streets.
In general, more and more people seem to be reevaluating their social
and digital existence. Even the SOPA battle is revealing some
unforeseen schisms. The Stop Online Piracy Act
is a bad idea, not because piracy is good, but because of the plan for
enforcement is wrong and dangerous. That said, no one who creates
content can deny that the digital revolution hasn’t forced them to
rethink how they create, sell and distribute content. There are no easy
answers here and 2012 will be a year of introspection; one where we
possibly rewrite the rules of content, copyrights and social
interactions.
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